Forecasting

Authors names:

KHALED ELASHRY

OMAR ELSHIEKH

ARMAGAN AYDIN

Passanger Forecasting Of China Southern Airlines

China southern Airlines promises future. The airline is the 6th biggest airline in the world and biggest in the China. According to researches China Southern Airlines traffic up 9.8% in Q1 2018. This is the China Southern Airlines Pax number in the period of 2008-2017:

The airline mainly operating in domestic routes, it’s about 86% (108.62 million in 2017). The international flights mainly focuses on Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.

This is the charts that shows and estimates the pax (number of passenger per year):

Exponential

Linear

We believe that linear chart represents better forecasting than exponential because the company’s pax is more likely to grow linearlt than exponentialy (see chart 1). The 2018 number is estimated 129.24 and 2019 138.24 linearly. The exponential number estimation is 141.78 in 2018 and 156.01. We believe that exponential estimation would be too optimistic.

Resources:

China Southern Airlines traffic up 9.8% in Q1 2018; 2017 marks first year of double-digit passenger growth since 2010; Shenzhen expanding fast

https://www.csair.com/en/about/gongsijianjie/